Uit de oude doos: I told you so …

Twee leuke stukken uit The Economist met een voorspellende blik:

Uit 1998 (deze link) over de monetaire unie

Bond markets could be pretty stormy too. As doubts about whether countries would get to the altar faded, so yields in government-bond markets converged. (…) The reason for the earlier narrowing was the prospect of governments’ losing control of their currencies. Italy, for instance, will no longer be able to inflate its way out of debts by printing money; so investors no longer require a premium for the risk. Yet the euro should, by the same token, make credit risk more, not less, of an issue. In effect, countries will be borrowing in a foreign currency without control of the printing presses. For what was inflation risk, now read credit risk. (…) Government-bond yields may have converged for now, but, as concerns about weaker countries mount, they will diverge again. Far from being a haven of stability, both the euro and its bond markets—like some marriages—could be rather volatile.”

 En uit 2000 (deze link) over een financiële crisis

The same tension between European integration and national control also poses problems for bank supervision. Banks are likely to become more pan-European as the single currency encourages cross-border mergers and greater cross-border exposures. A failure in one country could thus spill more quickly to other parts of Europe. Unfortunately, the existing framework is ill-equipped to handle a Europe-wide banking crisis, because supervision remains in the hands of national regulators. For its part, the ECB may not have enough information in a crisis, and it would find it hard to co-ordinate the activities of national regulators. (…)  The ECB has been lucky: it has not yet faced a financial crisis. It will one day. Better, therefore, to reform the system beforehand. Sadly, history shows that it always takes a crisis to persuade policymakers to act.”


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